04 December 2025
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has released a new, scenario-based guide to enhance the EU/EEA's preparedness and response to zoonotic influenza strains with pandemic potential, such as avian A(H5N1) and swine flu viruses. This proactive measure comes amid the unprecedented and widespread circulation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) among European bird and animal populations, which increases the risk of spillover to humans.
The framework, detailed in the document Scenarios for pre-pandemic zoonotic influenza preparedness and response, defines 14 specific scenarios, ranging from no human cases to potential limited human-to-human transmission, based on epidemiological and virological triggers. Key triggers include the virus's animal origin, disease severity in humans, and the presence of genetic markers for mammalian adaptation. The ECDC strongly emphasizes a coordinated One Health approach, requiring unified action between veterinary and public health sectors to translate early animal signals into timely human protection measures. While vaccination is considered for high-risk occupational groups to prevent viral reassortment, the core focus remains on early detection and proportional mitigation.
Yet, with the risk to human populations escalating, shouldn't the priority be the promotion of effective measures, such as vaccination of poultry, to curb the uncontrolled spread and evolution of the virus?
