What's New ? - 2022

What's New ? - 2022

EU Poultry outlook

Source: EU Agricultural Outlook 2021-2031 25 January, 2022

Increase in EU poultry production and consumption to slow down
The increase in EU poultry consumption could slow down, from the 2% rise per year in 2011-2021 to a 0.5% rise in2021-2031. In other words, the apparent consumption per capita could increase from 23.5 kg in 2021 to 24.8 kg in 2031. That should be driven by continued changes in consumer preferences, stemming from a healthier image of poultry compared to other meats (especially pigmeat), the greater convenience to prepare it and the absence of religious constraints regarding its consumption. Adapting swiftly to the changes in demand, EU poultry produ ction is expected to continue increasing during the outlook period by 0.4% per year, albeit slowing down compared to the past decade (2.6%).
EU trade to start stagnating overall but dynamics are changing
EU poultry exports showed a dynamic expansion in 2011-2021 (3.7% per year), with the main products exported being those less in demand in the EU (wings, legs and offal). Currently, as they are facing fierce competition – especially from Brazil, increase in EU poultry exports are due to be limited until 2031. However, a number of export opportunities stand out. The expected increase in total imports by Sub-Saharan Africa, the Philippines, Colombia and the UK combined could reach 178,000 t per year until 2031. On the other hand, while China imported pigmeat as well as poultry to compensate for its lost pigmeat production capacity, it is likely to reduce both its poultry and pigmeat imports. As a result, the EU could lose share in the global trade, from 16% in 2021 to 13% in 2031. EU poultry imports, mostly supplying foodservice, should recover and reach almost pre-COVID-19 levels by 2026.
EU poultry price to stabilise at a high level
After a drop in 2020-2021 due to COVID-19, the EU poultry price started to recover. It is expected to almost plateau as soon as 2022, and then slowly increase towards EUR 2 000/t by 2031.