Infectious Diseases 2021

Infectious Diseases 2021

HPAI: Seasonal trend

Source:OIE 18 December, 2021

Using data reported to the OIE between 2005 and 2019 by 76 affected countries and territories for 18,620 outbreaks in poultry, researchers used a Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) analysis to determine the seasonal pattern of the disease. Based on the data reported to the OIE, spread is lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. The graph shown below shows the global seasonal pattern of HPAI in poultry and the red rectangle indicates where we currently are in the cicle. 

Seasonal trend in global HPAI incidence in poultry