What's New ? - 2019

What's New ? - 2019

Poultry production in Brazil

GAIN Report No. BR 1922 19 August, 2019

Production: Chicken meat production in 2020 is forecast at 13.975 MMT, mostly driven by rising global demand, especially from China and higher domestic demand. Trade sources remain optimistic that exports to China will remain firm next year due to the outbreak of African Swine Fever (AFS) in Asia. Domestic demand for chicken meat is also forecast to increase due to the expected rebound of the Brazilian economy in 2020, projected lower inflation, and declining unemployment rates. Other factors contributing to the optimistic outlook next year include: feed costs are likely to remain stable due to a projected record 2019/2020 soybean and corn harvests, an above average number of chicks placed in meat-growing operations in the past months, reflecting producers’ confidence in the market, the average live weight of birds continues to grow due to improved genetics, and the competitive prices of Brazilian product. The last factor assumes an average exchange rate above R$3.85 per U.S. dollar.
Consumption: Domestic consumption of chicken meat in 2020 is forecast to rebound by 1.5 percent after a small increase this year. The Post forecast reflects an estimated economic growth of 2.0 percent in 2020, inflation below the government target rate of 4 percent, and improved consumer income.Unemployment rates are also trending downward. In addition, chicken prices are estimated to continue to be competitive in 2020 with other competing meats due to higher supply of chicken meat available in the domestic market and Brazilian consumer preference for chicken meat. It is estimated that Brazilian consumer preference for the three types of meat in Brazil is as follows: chicken 45%, beef 40% and pork 15%.