Infectious Diseases 2025

Brazil is facing mounting economic and trade challenges after confirming its first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) on a commercial poultry farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul. The incident, confirmed on May 16, has prompted over 20 countries to impose full or partial bans on Brazilian poultry products, threatening the nation’s dominant position in global poultry exports. 
Widespread Trade Bans 
Countries around the world have moved swiftly to block imports in an effort to prevent the spread of bird flu:
Nationwide Bans
Several countries, including China, the European Union, South Korea, Mexico, Argentina, and South Africa, have suspended all poultry imports from Brazil. These bans reflect the loss of Brazil’s HPAI-free certification, which is required for international trade.
Targeted Restrictions
Other countries, such as Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, have opted for more localized measures, banning poultry products only from the affected region or city. Some nations have restricted imports from within a 10-kilometer radius of the outbreak site.
Brazil Responds
In response to the crisis, Brazilian authorities have initiated a 28-day observation period starting May 22. This follows the disinfection of the affected farm. If no further outbreaks are detected during this period, Brazil may be reinstated as bird flu-free. The government is also working to convince trade partners to adopt regional rather than nationwide restrictions. 
Economic Toll
The bans are already inflicting serious economic damage. Brazil, which exported approximately $10 billion worth of poultry in 2024, stands to lose up to $250 million per month in lost export revenue. Projections suggest total losses could reach $500 million to $1 billion over the next 12 months, depending on the length and scope of the bans.
Key markets affected - including China, the EU, and South Korea - represent more than $4 billion annually, or about 40% of Brazil’s total poultry export value.
Outlook
Brazil’s ability to contain the outbreak during the observation period will be pivotal in determining when and how global trade partners lift the current restrictions. Until then, the country’s poultry industry remains under intense economic pressure, with ripple effects expected across related sectors such as feed production, transportation, and labor.