The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2024-2033
A comprehensive report explores the future of agricultural commodities, highlighting trends in consumption, production, trade, and pricing over the next decade. The report outlines several key trends and impacts on the poultry industry over the Outlook period from 2024 to 2033:
1. Production Growth: Global poultry production is projected to increase significantly, with a notable rise in developing countries driven by domestic demand. Global poultry meat consumption is projected to reach 160 million metric tons (MT) retail weight equivalent by 2033, accounting for half of the additional meat eaten over the period. The increase in poultry meat consumption is primarily driven by several key regions and demographic trends: Developing Countries: The most significant growth in poultry consumption is expected in developing countries, particularly in Asia. Countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are leading this trend due to rising incomes and urbanization, which boost demand for animal protein .
2. Rising Demand for Animal Protein: There is a sustained increase in demand for animal protein, including poultry, which is favored for its production cycle and feed conversion efficiency. This demand is particularly strong in urban markets of developing countries.
3. Challenges from Disease: The poultry sector faces challenges from diseases such as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which can disrupt production and increase costs. The rising density of poultry production heightens the risk of disease outbreaks, necessitating improved biosecurity measures.
4. Environmental and Health Concerns: The industry is under pressure to address environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions and resource consumption. There is also a growing consumer preference for healthier food options, which may shift demand away from traditional meat products.
5. Economic Pressures: High production costs, including feed and labor, continue to challenge poultry producers. While feed costs have stabilized, other operational costs remain high, impacting profitability.
6. Technological Advancements: Improvements in breeding, operational management, and feed efficiency are expected to enhance productivity in the poultry sector, helping producers remain competitive despite rising costs. Overall, while the poultry industry is poised for growth, it must navigate significant challenges related to disease management, environmental sustainability, and changing consumer preferences.
