Predicting and validating H5N1-H3N2 reassortment potential
A new study (preprint) focuses on the reassortment potential between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses and human influenza A viruses (IAVs), specifically H3N2. The researchers developed an intelligent framework called HAIRANGE (Human Adaptive Influenza Virus Reassortment using Attentional Networks based on Genome Embedding) to predict high-risk reassortment events. This framework employs deep learning techniques to analyze genomic codons, integrating both RNA and protein information to assess the adaptive potential of these viruses.
The study found that the current HPAI H5N1 viruses pose a significant risk of reassorting with human H3N2 IAVs, potentially leading to the emergence of new pandemic strains. The predictions made by HAIRANGE were validated through in vitro experiments, specifically using a polymerase reporter assay, which confirmed the high reassortment potential of the current HPAI H5N1 viruses with human H3N2 IAVs. Paul Offit, in his book "Vaccinated: One Man’s Quest to Defeat the World’s Deadliest Diseases", quotes Dr. Maurice Hilleman, who stated that "bird flu wouldn’t become a pandemic virus until it spread easily among people. H5 viruses have circulated for more than a hundred years and have never been very contagious. Hilleman believed they never would be, noting that only three types of hemagglutinins had ever caused pandemic disease in humans: H1, H2, and H3." However, a reassortment of the H5N1 avian influenza virus with human H3N2 could lead to the emergence of a potential pandemic H3Nx virus.
